आगरा रैली : उत्तर प्रदेश विधानसभा चुनाव

नोटबंदी के फैसले के बाद प्रधानमंत्री मोदी की उत्तर प्रदेश में यह दूसरी रैली होगी , गाजीपुर की सफल रैली के बाद जिस तरह से मायावती ने रैली में आयी भीड़ को बिहार से लायी गयी बताया उससे पता चलता है की रैली पर काफी लोगों की निगाहें रहेंगी , नोटबंदी के लगभग ग्यारह दिन बीत चुके हैं जनता अभी बैंक और एटीएम के चक्कर लगा रही है ,मतलब अभी वो काफी नज़दीक से नोटबंदी के फैसले का मूल्यांकन कर रही है, रैली की सफलता या विफलता दोनों आगामी चुनाव को काफी दिलचस्प बनायेंगे ।
दलित राजनीति की दिशा तय करने वाले शहर से मायावती को काफी उम्मीदें हैं ,और यही कारण है कि मायावती ने काफी सोचकर आगरा को अपने पहली रैली के लिए चुना था ,रैली में लगभग एक लाख लोगों ने शिरकत किया था ,और रैली भीड़ के पैमाने में काफी सफल रैली मानी गयी थी।
आगरा जिला में कुल 9 विधानसभा सीटें हैं , 2012 के समाजवादी लहर में भी बीसपी ने 6 सीटें जीती थी , लगभग 35.06 मतों के साथ, 2014 के लोकसभा चुनाव में बीजेपी को 49 .03 % वोट मिले और वह 8 जगहों में पहले स्थान पर थी , बसपा को 27.31% वोट और सपा को 16.74% वोट मिले , जाहिर है बीजेपी अपने लोकसभा प्रदर्शन और बसपा अपने विधानसभा प्रदर्शन को दुहराना चाहेगी।
आगरा रैली की सफलता बीजेपी के लिए बहुत जरूरी है , यहाँ से दिया गया सन्देश न केवल उत्तर प्रदेश के लिए होगा बल्कि यह पुरे देश के लिए होगा , अगर प्रधानमंत्री कोई बड़ी घोषणा करते है तो इसमें भी आश्चर्य नहीं होगा ,अभी नोटबंदी के लिए लाइन में लगे लोगों के लिए हर शब्द का एक अलग महत्व है।
आगरा दलित राजनीति का केंद्र रहा है , लगभग 22 % दलित आगरा में है ,अल्पसंख्यक की संख्या लगभग 9 % है , मायवती दलित और मुस्लिम मतदाताओं को राजनीतिक रूप से एक सूत्र में बाँधने की कवायद ज़ोरों से कर रही है, परंतु समाजवादी पार्टी और कांग्रेस ने भी अपना पूरा दम लगा रखा है ऐसे में मायावती की राह आसान नहीं है।

बीजेपी के पास अभी दो-दो सर्जिकल स्ट्राइक का क्रेडिट है और पार्टी पूरी तरह से इसे भुनाने में कोई कसर नहीं छोड़ेगी परंतु अभी लगभग दो महीने से ज्यादा का वक़्त है चुनाव में और भावनात्मक मुद्दों को लंबे समय तक बनाये रखना आसान नहीं रहता है । पिछले कुछ चुनाव परिणामों से एक बात बहुत साफ़ नज़र आ रही है जनता विकास के मुद्दों को अब ज्यादा महत्व दे रही है और वह एक निर्णायक मत दे कर अपने मत के ताक़त को अभिव्यक्त कर रही है ,सार यही है की राजनीतिक दलों को विकास की बात जनता तक सीधे पहुँचाना होगा ,चुनाव प्रचार को परिणाम केंद्रित बनाना होगा |

आगरा की रैली में प्रधानमंत्री किस तरह से जनता को विकास का मंत्र देते है यह देखना काफी रोचक होगा। आगरा एक ऐतिहासिक शहर है , पर्यटकों के शहर में विकास का अकड़ा बहुत उत्साहजनक नहीं है , ऐसे में विकास  की रूपरेखा खिंचना और जनता तक पहुँचाना रैली का केंद्र बिंदु रहेगा ।

डिस्क्लेमर : इस ब्लॉग में व्यक्त किए गए विचार लेखक के निजी विचार हैं. इस ब्लॉग में दी गई किसी भी जानकारी की सटीकता, संपूर्णता, व्यावहारिकता तथा सच्चाई के प्रति Datamineria उत्तरदायी नहीं है.

Impact of Third Front in Tamil Nadu Election

Tamil Nadu politics has been dominated by Dravidian parties for nearly five decades. During this time span, the state witnessed numerous bipolar contests between All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Jayalalitha led AIADMK has done quite well in last couple of elections. Its performance can be termed spectacular in the last parliamentary election held in 2014. The party had garnered about 44.3 percent vote share in the election. The party won 37 out of 39 lok sabha seats in the elections. Two seats had gone to the NDA. Another strong block DMK alliance could not win a single seat.

However, situation seems to be different in this assembly election. Popularity of the present government is on decline following the Tamil Nadu floods. Many people feel that inept handling of the situation during the flood and poor management of relief operations after the flood has left the people in the state disillusioned towards present regime. DMK is not looking as strong as it used to be.

In such a situation, small regional parties are flexing their muscles and trying to provide a serious alternative. In this attempt, Vijayakant led Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) has tied up with People Welfare Front (PWF). The alliance has the capacity of pose serious threat to the big two parties. Alliance has decided to project Vijayakant as Chief Ministerial candidate. PWF is a front comprising of MDMK, CPI, CPM and VCK. Vaiko of MDMK was the prime negotiator of the deal. PMK, a strong regional party PMK led by Ramadoss, has decided to fight the assembly elections alone. Another important party BJP, which could manage 5.56 percent vote share in 2014 parliamentary elections, is also left alone in this election.

Let us see how strong DMDK- PWF alliance is. In the last assembly elections held in 2011, DMDK had captured approximately 8 percent vote share. Among the constituents of PWF, CPI had got 2 percent vote share whereas CPM and VCK had won 2.4 and 1.5 percent vote share respectively. Another important component MDMK did not contest the polls. However, in 2006 assembly elections, the party had won approximately 6 percent vote share. So, in totality, the alliance is sitting on approximately 20 percent vote share.

If the alliance is able to leverage its strength, it can do much better this time. There is a general perception that DMK will not be able to cash in on the declining popularity of the present government. DMDK- PWF alliance is trying hard to grab this opportunity. Vijayakant is quite popular in the state and he has good influence on Telgu-Naidu community, dalit arunthathiyars and OBCs of central and western Tamil Nadu. His progressive, pro-development image is making him popular among the youth. VCK has strong base among dalits. CPI and CPM have got strongholds in central and southern Tamil Nadu. Vaiko of MDMK has his own set of strengths. He is a good orator and has been able to project the alliance as an alternative to AIADMK and DMK.

All these situations are making the Tamil Nadu elections very interesting. DMK-Congress alliance is leaving no stone unturned in attempt to cash in on anti-incumbency factor. Some high voltage drama on accusations and counter accusations are on. New equations will emerge and parties will step up aggressive campaigns as the election approaches.

West Bengal Election-Chemistry

 

The upcoming assembly election in West Bengal is going to witness some unprecedented happenings. For the first time in the history of West Bengal politics, the Congress and the Left front have entered into pre-poll understanding. These two traditional rivals had come together at national level in 2004, when Left front provided outside support to UPA after the parliamentary elections. However, that was a post-election arrangement and the purpose was to keep BJP out of power. Logic was simple: enemy of an enemy is friend. This time, in West Bengal assembly elections, logic is the same but enemy has changed. It’s Trinamool Congress now.

Although BJP is not an important player in West Bengal, its performance in terms of vote share is going to play a crucial role. In 2014 lok sabha elections, riding on the Modi wave, BJP had given stunning performance by capturing 16 percent vote share. The party won 2 lok sabha seats and secured second position in 3 parliamentary constituencies. However things are different now. Modi wave is on the wane. It’s clear that main battle is between Trinamool Congress and Congress-Left alliance.

It’s very unlikely that BJP will repeat its spectacular performance of 2014 lok sabha elections. If we look into the performance of NDA in assembly elections post lok sabha, data speaks all. In Bihar, NDA vote share was 39.4 percent in 2014 elections. In 2015 assembly elections, it went down to 34.9 percent. Delhi saw a heavy decline in BJP’s vote share from 46.6 percent in 2014 lok sabha elections to 32.3 percent in 2015 assembly elections. Even the states where BJP won and formed government, vote share decreased considerably. Haryana saw a decline from 41percent in parliamentary elections to 33.8 percent in assembly elections. In J&K, BJP’s share decreased from 32.6 to 23.2 percent. In Maharashtra, NDA’s share was 51.8 in 2014 elections and the combined vote share of NDA & Shiv Sena fell down to 48.9 percent in assembly elections. Jharkhand also witnessed a decline of votes from 40.7 percent to 35.5 percent in the assembly elections.

So, on an average, NDA’s vote share has gone down by approximately 7 percent in post lok sabha assembly elections. If we assume that the same thing will happen in W Bengal then 7 percent vote share is up for grab for both AITC and Left-Congress alliance. Let us see who will grab the bigger chunk.

In 2011 assembly elections, Left front had got 39.6 percent vote which fell down to 29 percent in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s vote share had jumped from 4 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2014. Changes in vote shares of Trinamool Congress and INC were marginal. This says that the BJP’s vote share jump was mainly at the expense of Left front. Now, in lok sabha elections, vote share of AITC was 39.8 percent. Congress and Left front had secured 9.7 and 23 percent votes respectively. So, the difference between AITC and Congress- Left combine was negligible. If we analyze region wise, the alliance is poised to get direct benefit in North Bengal districts, North & South 24 Pargana and several South Bengal districts.

However, politics is not all about mathematics; chemistry also plays a crucial role. For the first time in West Bengal, Congress and Left supporters will be expected to have a common choice. The pattern in the transfer of votes would be difficult to predict. In Kerala, the two alliance partners of West Bengal are pitted against each other in a bipolar contest. All these scenarios make the upcoming election very interesting. The outcome will also have a long term impact in the dynamics of Indian political system.

Author : Alok @ datamineria